luci2 Urban Simulation Model:
Central Indiana Implementation
Developed by
John R. Ottensmann
Center for
Urban Policy and the Environment
Indiana
University-Purdue University Indianapolis
Help
contents
General
information
Program context
help
Welcome
to luci2
HELP CONTENTS
The Central Indiana Implementation of the luci2
Urban Simulation Model simulates future urban
development in the 44-county Central Indiana region. This
program allows you to create new scenarios for future
growth that reflect different choices you make about how
development will and should take place.
The buttons across the top of the program window provide
access to all of the capabilities of luci2.
Maps displays the map buttons and the
first map.
Tables displays the table buttons and
the first table.
New scenario displays the buttons for
setting scenario options and creating a new scenario.
Tools displays buttons for working with
scenarios and setting program options.
Help displays this Help window with
context-sensitive help about what you are currently doing
in the program.
Exit closes the program.
To learn more about how to use luci2, follow the
instructions in the NEW USER TUTORIAL.
For a general introduction to the luci2 model,
start at INTRODUCTION TO luci2.
For more information and assistance in using the luci2
model, go to MORE INFORMATION ON luci2.
About
luci2
HELP CONTENTS
Copyright 2004 by John R. Ottensmann and the Center for
Urban Policy and the Environment.
The luci2 Urban Simulation Model and the Central
Indiana Implementation have been developed by John
R. Ottensmann with the support of the Center for Urban
Policy and the Environment at Indiana University-Purdue
University Indianapolis.
The model is provided "as is" with no warranty
as to the performance of the software or the accuracy of
the predictions. The user of the model bears full
responsibility for any use he or she may choose to make
of the model output.
This product includes color specifications and designs
developed by Cynthia Brewer (http://colorbrewer.org/).
Introduction to luci2
HELP CONTENTS
The luci2 model has been developed for the
Central Indiana region from information on past patterns
of development derived from satellite images and other
sources. The model uses factors associated with that
development, including the availability of land,
employment accessibility, transportation facilities,
availability of infrastructure such as sewers, and other
factors to estimate the probability of future development
occurring in each of the small grid cells on which the
model is based to predict residential and
employment-related development.
The luci2 model
is intended to be used to produce different scenarios
reflecting policy choices and alternative assumptions
about factors that can affect urban development. Examples
of such scenarios and policy choices could include
restricting development along streams and in wetlands,
policies to preserve agricultural land, new
transportation improvements, and changes in densities of
development. The model provides maps showing possible
future patterns of development and tables with
information ranging from land use changes to the
predicted future journey to work.
The luci2 model
has been developed as part of a larger project being
undertaken by the Center for Urban Policy and the
Environment, "Central Indiana’s
Future: Understanding the Region and Identifying
Choices," which has been funded by an award of
general support from the Lilly Endowment.
To obtain a more
information about the luci2 model, follow the
links at the bottom of this and succeeding pages.
All of the help pages are
standard HTML pages that can be viewed in and
printed from any browser. To view and print individual
help pages in a browser, start by opening the file HelpContents.html
in the Help folder located under the luci2
program folder. If you did the normal installation of the
program, this will be located at C:\Program
Files\luci2\Help\HelpContents.htm.
If you would like to print
out the entire set of help pages in a single document,
this is available in the same Help folder, both
as an HTML document, luci2Help.htm,
that can be opened, viewed, and printed from your browser
and as a Microsoft Word document, luci2Help.doc,
that can be opened, viewed, and printed from Word. Once
again, if you did the normal installation of the program,
these files will be located at C:\Program
Files\luci2\Help\luci2Help.html and C:\ProgramFiles\luci2\Help\luci2Help.doc.
You can also access the
complete luci2 help documents on the LUCI
website at http://luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu.
PROCEED TO luci2
GEOGRAPHY
luci2
geography
HELP CONTENTS
The Central Indiana Implementation of the luci2
model has been developed to simulate future urban
development for a 44-county region in Central Indiana.
This region has been defined as the Indianapolis BEA
Region by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is the
region on which the Center for Urban Policy and the
Environment has focused in its project, "Central
Indiana’s Future: Understanding the Region and
Identifying Choices."
The luci2 model
simulates residential and employment-related development
using a system of one-mile-square grid cells covering the
region. There are 17,369 grid cells in the Central
Indiana region.
The luci2 model
also predicts employment change by ZIP code for the
Central Indiana region, using 320 ZIP code areas.
PROCEED TO luci2
DATA
luci2
data
HELP CONTENTS
The basic data on land use in the Central Indiana region
were derived from LandSat satellite images from 1985,
1993, and 2000. These images provide information for
30-meter-square pixels. The information in the images was
classified to identify the land cover for each pixel. A
reclassification procedure was developed to identify
areas of residential, employment-related, and nonurban
land uses. The results were aggregated to the system of
one-mile-square grid cells.
Information on areas that
would not be available for future urban development
because it was public land, parks, airports, interstate
highways, railroads, and water was assembled from various
sources.
Population data are from
the 2000 census.
Data on levels of
employment by ZIP code for major industry group for 1995
and 2000 are from the Indiana Department of Workforce
Development workforce (ES-202) data.
Distances to interstate
and four-lane highways were computed using road networks
from Etak.
Areas served by water and
sewer utilities were obtained directly from those
utilities by the Center for Urban Policy and the
Environment.
ISTEP scores by school
district were obtained from the Indiana Department of
Education website.
Land areas for imposing
possible restrictions on development were determined
using information from various sources, as follows:
Wetlands came from the National Wetlands Inventory.
Riparian buffers were determined using information on
surface waters from the United States Geological Survey
(see RIPARIAN BUFFERS for more information). Slopes were
calculated using a digital elevation model from the USGS.
Forest areas and land in agricultural use were derived
from the classified land cover data.
PROCEED TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE luci2 MODEL
Development of the
luci2 model
HELP CONTENTS
The luci2 model includes nine equations that are
used in the simulation. The parameter values have been
estimated using the data assembled for the model. These
equations are:
- Employment change for
four major industry groups by ZIP code
- Probabilities of
residential and employment-related development by
grid cell
- Densities of
residential and employment-related development
- Journey to work
The probabilities of
residential and employment-related development are
predicted using aggregated logit models. The dependent
variables are the logits of the proportions of available
land converted to those uses in the period before 2000.
These are the predictors
of the probability of residential development:
- Accessibility to
employment and employment change
- Distance to
interstate interchanges and to nearest other
4-lane highways
- Availability of water
and sewer utility service
- Proportion of land
residential in each grid cell and the surrounding
cells and its square (to capture the phenomenon
that residential development tends to start out
slowly in areas with low levels of development,
accelerates as the areas become more developed,
and tapers off as the areas become more fully
developed)
- Logit of proportion
of land converted to residential use in the
preceding period (persistence of development
pattern)
- ISTEP total battery
scores 1999-2000 for the school district
These are the predictors
of the probability of employment-related development:
- Accessibility to
population
- Availability of water
and sewer utility service
- Distance to
interstate interchanges and to nearest other
4-lane highways
- Amount of
employment-related land use (agglomeration)
Employment change by ZIP
code for the four major industry groups are predicted
using the following types of variables:
- Accessibility to
population and population change
- Population and
population change
- Land use and land use
change
- Employment levels
- Distance to
interstate interchanges
- Availability of sewer
utility service
Models to predict population
densities for residential development and employment
densities for employment-related development were
estimated using data for 2000 and use similar, though
fewer predictors.
PROCEED TO HOW luci2 SIMULATES URBAN
DEVELOPMENT
How
luci2 simulates urban development
HELP CONTENTS
In creating a new scenario, luci2 performs the
simulation in five-year increments from 2000 to the
target year set for the scenario, which can be up to
2040.
The simulation is driven
by an exogenous, user-specified forecast of population
growth for the entire region. Urban development is
simulated to accommodate that population growth.
In each round of the
simulation, the model starts by predicting changes in
employment by ZIP code for the four major industry
groups. Total employment in the region is assumed to grow
at the same rate as the population.
The next step is the
simulation of employment-related development. The model
predicts the level of employment-related land use per
employee by ZIP code. This is used with the predicted
growth in employment to determine the amount of
employment-related development to be allocated. Then the
model predicts the probability of employment-related
development by grid cell. Within each ZIP code, the
employment-related development is allocated to the grid
cells having the highest probabilities, subject to
certain constraints.
Finally, the model
simulates residential development. The model predicts the
probability of residential development and the population
density for such development for each grid cell. These
two values, multiplied by the amount of available
nonurban land in each grid cell provide the total
population that would be accommodated by development
using those probabilities. The probabilities are then
uniformly adjusted up or down across the grid cells to
provide for residential development that will just
accommodate the specified population growth.
The results from each
round of the simulation are then used as the inputs for
the succeeding round, until the target year set for the
scenario is reached.
At the conclusion of the
simulation, the various summary statistics are computed
for the scenario.
PROCEED TO USE OF SCENARIOS IN luci2
Use of scenarios in luci2
HELP CONTENTS
The fundamental purpose of luci2 is not to
produce a single, "best" forecast of urban
development in the region for some future year. Rather, luci2
is intended to be used to produce alternative scenarios
reflecting different choices about policy options that
might be pursued and different assumptions about how
development might actually occur in the region. By
producing and comparing such scenarios, the user of luci2
is provided with greater insight regarding the effects of
the choices that will influence the future development of
the region and the consequences of those choices.
To allow for the
generation of a wide range of scenarios, LUCI
provides a large number of scenario specifications that
can be changed to produce new scenarios. You can see the
various choices that can be made in creating new
scenarios on the NEW SCENARIO help screen.
PROCEED TO ACTIVE AND COMPARISON SCENARIOS IN luci2
Active and comparison
scenarios in luci2
HELP CONTENTS
Because the generation and comparison of alternative
scenarios is fundamental to the use of luci2,
the program always has two scenarios loaded and ready for
viewing, an Active scenario and a Comparison
scenario. The names of these two scenarios are shown
on all of the maps and tables, with the Active scenario
always on the left. The names of the scenarios and any
associated comments can always be viewed by clicking on
the Tools button at the top of the window.
At any time, the user can
view the results from the simulations for the Active
and Comparison scenarios by clicking on the Maps
and Tables buttons at the top of the window.
When a new scenario is
created, it becomes the new Active scenario. All
scenarios that are created are saved and can be recalled
for viewing and use later. The user can change either the
Active or the Comparison scenario by
using the buttons displayed by clicking on the TOOLS button at the top of the window.
When the program is first
installed, it is set to load the CURRENT TRENDS SCENARIO as the Active and Comparison
scenarios on program startup. The user can specify
that other scenarios be loaded at startup by clicking on
the STARTUP PREFERENCES button displayed after clicking on
the Tools button.
PROCEED TO CURRENT TRENDS SCENARIO
Current trends scenario
HELP CONTENTS
The luci2 model comes with the Current
trends scenario, which is loaded as the Active
and Comparison scenarios when the program is
started (unless the user alters the startup preferences;
see STARTUP PREFERENCES).
The specifications for the
Current trends scenario represent, in
part, values estimated from the period prior to 2000 in
the development of the model. These are the assumptions
used in creating this scenario:
- Population growth
continuing at the rate of population growth for
the region from 1990 to 2000
- All model parameters
as estimated for the most recent period before
2000
- No changes to
policies affecting urban development from those
in the recent past
The Current trends scenario,
therefore, represents one view as to what might be a more
likely future pattern of development that might be
expected if no significant changes are made to public
policies and if development proceeds in a manner similar
to the way it has in the recent past.
Because of the tenuous
nature of these assumptions, the Current trends scenario
should not, however, be interpreted as the
"best" or "most likely" forecast of
future development for the Central Indiana region. The
development of such a forecast would involve various
assumptions and judgments such that different persons
could arrive at different scenarios that they would
consider to be a "best" forecast.
PROCEED TO ADDITIONAL
SCENARIOS
Additional scenarios
HELP CONTENTS
The luci2 model also comes with four additional
scenarios intended to provide an introduction to the
types of possible scenarios that can be created with the
model. Two of these scenarios are the same as those you
would create if you run the tutorial (see NEW
USER TUTORIAL).
(The tutorial has you giving the scenarios slightly
different names so you do not overwrite these.) All of
these scenarios involving making changes to the Current
trends scenario in only one area, to show the
effects of those changes.
The Urban growth
boundaries scenario changes the Current trends
scenario by imposing urban growth boundaries around the
major urban areas. The urban growth boundary areas have
total areas that are 125 percent of current urban areas.
Development is allowed only within the urban growth
boundaries and in outside grid cells that were at least
25 percent urban at the start of the simulation. This
scenario shows the concentration of new development, at
higher densities, near the existing urban areas.
The Preserve Ag Land
scenario changes the Current Trends scenario by
restricting development on 60 percent of the agricultural
land in those grid cells in which at least 25 percent of
the land is currently agricultural. This scenario shows
one way in which agricultural land can be protected from
development while also illustrating some of the problem
in doing so by uniformly imposing such restrictions
throughout the region.
The Higher Densities
scenario changes the Current Trends scenario by
specifying that the density of new urban development is
to be increased by 35 percent over the densities
otherwise predicted by the model. This is a modest
increase in densities such that houses that would have
been built on one-acre lots under the Current Trends
scenario, for example, would be built on lots of about
3/4 acre. This scenario shows the reductions in the
amount of land converted to urban uses and reduction in
the amount of agricultural land lost resulting from such
an increase in density.
The Require Utilities
scenario changes the Current Trends scenario by
requiring that water and sewer utilities be required for
development to occur in any grid cell. It further
specifies that utility service areas are to be expanded
around the major metropolitan areas to serve areas that
are 125 percent of the current urban areas. This scenario
demonstrates the concentration of new urban development
around existing developed areas at someone higher
densities and shows how such policies can have an effect
that is similar to an urban growth boundary..
The results for these
three additional scenarios can be immediately viewed
without creating and running the scenarios. Click on the Tools
button and then click on Load Scenario as Active
or Load Scenario as Comparison, and select the
desired scenario (see TOOLS). (If you have previously created and saved
a scenario in another folder, you may need to first click
on Reset to Default Scenarios Folder to see and
load those scenarios.) Once a scenario has been loaded,
you can then use the Maps and Tables
buttons to see the scenario results.
PROCEED TO luci2 SIMULATION RESULTS
luci2
simulation results
HELP CONTENTS
The fundamental results from a luci2 simulation
are final employment by ZIP code and final amounts of
residential and employment-related land use by grid cell
at the end of the simulation. The model provides
information about these results in two ways.
Tabular summary results
are provided for the region as a whole in multiple
tables. Final mounts of urban land and employment, and
their changes, are also provided for the counties in the
region. A summary of the information in these tables,
along with links to more detailed information about each
table, can be viewed at TABLES. The summary results can be viewed and
printed by clicking on the Tables button.
More visually appealing
are the mapped results, where the change in urban land,
the starting and final amounts of urban land, and the
starting and final land use patterns can be viewed. The
choices include maps comparing results for the Active
and Comparison Scenarios. A description of these
maps can be viewed at MAPS. These maps can be viewed and printed by
clicking on the Maps button. The display of the
information on the maps can be modified by setting the MAPPING PREFERENCES from by first clicking on the Tools
button..
PROCEED TO THE luci2 URBAN SIMULATION
MODEL PROGRAM
The luci2
Urban Simulation Model program
HELP CONTENTS
The luci2 Urban Simulation Model is a
general-purpose urban simulation program that has been
designed so that it can be used to implement simulation
models for different areas using different sets of data
without having to modify the program. The Central Indiana
Implementation is therefore just one example of the
simulation models that can be developed using this
program.
Models can be implemented
using either regular grid cells or irregular areas (such
as Traffic Analysis Zones). Models can use either airline
distances (as in the Central Indiana Implementation) or
travel times from travel demand models for calculating
the accessibility to employment and population measures.
Models can be of varying levels of complexity, up to the
level of complexity of the Central Indiana
Implementation.
It would be possible to
use the luci2 program to implement either the
original LUCI model or the LUCI/T model, which was
developed for the nine-county area surrounding
Indianapolis, using travel times, for the Central Indiana
Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study being done
by the Indiana Department of Transportation.
The luci2 Urban
Simulation Model also includes optional enhanced
user capabilities. The model can be set to automatically
output starting, intermediate, and final simulation
results for the simulation zones and the employment zones
when a scenario is simulated. Capabilities are also
provided to add additional user scenarios to an
implementation of the model. These user scenarios can
involve restrictions on land for development, residential
development densities, areas that would be provided with
water or sewer services, and new transportation
improvements.
PROCEED TO MORE INFORMATION ON luci2
More Information on luci2
HELP CONTENTS
Assistance in using the luci2 model can be
obtained from the Center for Urban Policy and the
Environment by email at luci@iupui.edu or by telephone at (317) 261-3000.
More information about the
luci2 model can be obtained from the LUCI
website at http://luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu.
The website includes a
PowerPoint presentation that provides a more
comprehensive introduction to luci2. This can be
viewed online or downloaded.
The website also includes
the current version of the luci2 Working Paper.
This document, which is revised as changes are made to
the model, provides the most complete documentation on luci2.
John R. Ottensmann, the
author of the luci2 Urban Simulation Model, can
be reached by email at jottensm@iupui.edu.
New user tutorial
HELP CONTENTS
Introduction
This is a short tutorial
that will get you familiar with many of the feature of
the luci2 program.
After you have completed
the tutorial and are using luci2, remember that
help is available for the tasks you will perform.
Clicking on the Help button will bring up help
information specific to what you are doing at the time.
If your screen in large
enough, the easiest way to use this tutorial is to
arrange this luci2 Help window and the program
side-by-side so you can read and scroll through the
tutorial while you are working with the program.
If this doesn't work for
you, keep the luci2 Help window open. You can
always access the luci2 Help window by clicking
on the luci2 Help button on your Windows
Taskbar.
Clicking on the Help
button while working through the tutorial will bring up
the help page specific to what you are doing. In that
case, you will have use the Back button or go to
the Help Contents to get back to this tutorial.
The luci2
program
If you started luci2
and clicked on NEW
USER TUTORIAL to get
to this tutorial, you should be looking at the opening
screen of the luci2 program.
Across the top of the
program window is a set of six command buttons which are
always displayed and which provide access to all of the
functions of the program. Maps, Tables,
New Scenario, and Tools change the
other command buttons that are displayed and display
different information. Help, of course, opens
the LUCI Help window. Exit closes the
program.
You use luci2 to
create, examine, and compare alternative scenarios for
the development of Central Indiana. The program will
always have two scenarios you can compare, the Active
scenario and the Comparison scenario.
When luci2 is
started, the Current trends scenario is
loaded as both the Active and Comparison scenarios.
The Current trends scenario was created
using likely development specifications to simulate
development to 2040 and is frequently a good starting
point for creating new scenarios.
Viewing scenario
results
Any time you a working in luci2,
you can view the results associated with the Active
and Comparison scenarios. You will briefly do
that now.
When the program is
started, the Maps button and the Change
button are selected and the specified maps are displayed.
You can always readily see which buttons have been
selected, because they become white and the text is
displayed in bold. This map shows the change in the
amount of urban land over the simulation period on the
left and the final amount of urban land on the right for
the Active scenario, which is now Current
trends.
The Urban and Land
use buttons show for the Active scenario
the amounts of urban land at the start and end of the
simulation and the generalized land use pattern at the
start and end. Click on each of those now. To see a
legend for the maps showing the meaning of the various
colors, click on the Legend button in the
lower-right corner of the map window. This opens the
legend in a new window.
The three Compare
buttons display maps for the Active and Comparison
scenarios side-by-side. Try those. At the current time,
the maps are identical because both the Current
trends scenario is loaded as both Active
and Comparison.
Now click on the Tables
button at to top of the window. This displays a new set
of buttons at the left side of the window, selects the Population
button, and displays that table. The table displays
scenario settings and results for both the Active
and Comparison scenarios, both still Current
Trends. Target year, Population growth,
and Density are several of the settings used in
creating the scenarios that are important for
interpreting the results. The table displays the Population,
Residential population density, and Journey
to work at the beginning and end of the simulation,
along with the changes. Other buttons display more
results for the simulations. Try looking at a few of
those tables now.
Click on the Scenario
specification button. This table displays all of the
settings used in creating both the Active and Comparison
scenarios. When scenarios are created by changing
these settings, the table expands to display the
information about the settings chosen.
Creating your
first new scenario
The Current trends scenario
showed significant amounts of land being urbanized,
with the urbanized area spreading over a significantly
larger portion of Central Indiana. Suppose you want to
explore scenarios that would result in more compact
development patterns that would preserve greater amounts
of agricultural land.
Click on the New
scenario button at the top of the window. A new set
of buttons is displayed at the left edge of the window,
the Target year button is selected, and the form
for changing the final year for the simulation is
displayed to the right of that button. These buttons
allow you to change a large number of specifications for
the creation of a new scenario. You won't necessarily
know what all of these options mean at first. But
remember, when any button is selected, clicking on the Help
button will bring up help information explaining the
options on each of the forms.
We'll create a new
scenario in which urban growth boundaries are placed
around each of the major urban areas in the region,
restricting new development to areas within the
boundaries and other cells that already have significant
urban development. Click on the Urban growth
boundaries button (the eighth button from the top).
This displays the form for setting the urban growth
boundary options to the right of the button. The settings
below the Establish urban growth boundaries
checkbox are current inactive and grayed-out, because
they are not applicable if urban growth boundaries are
not being used. Click in the checkbox. The options below
now become active and allow the adjustment of the
settings involving the application of urban growth
boundaries. For your first scenario, leave the default
values unchanged.
You are now ready to run
the simulation to create the new scenario. Click on the RUN
SIMULATION button at the bottom. This opens the Save
new scenario dialog box in which you must enter the
name for the new scenario. In the File name box,
type in UGB. Click on Save. This starts
the simulation to create the new scenario.
The luci2 model
simulates development in 5-year simulation periods. As
the simulation proceeds, maps are displayed showing the
simulation results for employment-related land use and
residential land use. Be patient, the model has to do a
lot of calculations in performing the simulation. The
speed at which this proceeds will depend upon the speed
of your computer.
At the conclusion of the
simulation, the Maps and Change buttons
are selected, displaying the maps of change in urban land
and total urban land at the end of the simulation for
your new UGB scenario, which has now become the Active
scenario.
Examining the
results for the Urban growth
boundaries scenario
Certainly looking at the Change
map seems to suggest that new urban development is more
tightly clustered around the edges of the existing urban
areas. But you can compare the urban change for this
scenario directly with the Current trends
scenario by clicking on the Compare change
button. This directly shows the differences when new
urban development is constrained by the limits of the
urban growth boundaries.
Now click on the Tables
button and the Population table is displayed.
The top entries in the table show that both scenarios are
to the target year 2040, both assume the same rate of
population growth, and both use the option that density
of residential development is as predicted by the model
(no specification of higher or lower densities for either
scenario). Then look at the residential population
density for new development. For the Urban growth
boundaries scenario, the density of new development
is reported to be 1,830 persons per square mile. For the Current
trends scenario, it is 1,466, much lower. Why this
difference? With the urban growth boundaries, new
residential development is constrained to areas closer to
the existing areas. These areas will have higher
accessibility to employment and are more likely to be
provided with sewer service, both factors that will lead
to higher densities, as predicted within the model.
Click on the Land use
button to display that table, and you will confirm that
far less land is converted to urban use with the UGB
scenario.
Click on the Agricultural
land button to display that table. Somewhat less
agricultural land is converted to urban use with the
urban growth boundaries, but the differences aren't as
great as when we looked at all the total amount of land
converted to urban use.
Creating your
second scenario
You're now interested in
creating a scenario with policies directly aimed at the
preservation of agricultural land. Click on the New
scenario button. When you start making the settings
to create a new scenario, the settings are initially set
for whatever is currently the Active scenario,
which is now your first new scenario with the urban
growth boundaries. You can confirm this by clicking on
the Urban growth boundaries button and see that
the checkbox is still checked.
But you want to create
your new scenario starting from the original settings for
the Current trends scenario. You could, of
course, just uncheck the box right now. But this could
get tedious if you had made changes to numbers of
settings for the Active scenario. And you might
forget to change one setting back. Instead, click on the Reset
to comparison scenario button. This changes all of
the settings back to those for whatever is being used as
the Comparison scenario, in this case, Current
trends. This makes it easy to create numbers of
scenarios, each of which is a variant of a single Comparison
scenario. To confirm that this worked, click on the Urban
growth boundaries button again and see that the
checkbox is now unchecked and that the remaining settings
are inactive.
Now click on the Agricultural
land button to display the settings to create a
scenario with policies to prevent agricultural areas from
being converted to urban use. Click the checkbox for Restrict
development on agricultural land. The settings below
specify the extent of the restrictions you want applied.
The first value specifies the percentage of the land in a
grid cell that is placed off-limits for urban development
and preserved. You decide to be even more aggressive than
the default value of 50 percent. So click on the up
spinner arrow to the right of this value to adjust the
value up to 60 percent.
The next setting specifies
the grid cells in which agricultural land is to be
preserved. (It may not make sense to try to preserve
agricultural land in grid cells that have only small
amounts of such land.) Again, you decide to preserve even
more agricultural land, so adjust this value down to 25
percent so that agricultural land will be preserved in
any grid cell in which at least one quarter of the land
is agricultural. Leave the final setting unchanged.
Now click on RUN
SIMULATION, enter the name Preserve ag, and
click on Save to begin the simulation. After the
simulation has been completed, click on the Compare
change button to compare the conversion of land to
urban use with the Current trends scenario. New
urban development is even more dispersed when preserving
the agricultural land than with Current trends.
What happened? By restricting development on agricultural
land close to the existing urban areas, you have forced
new development farther out. (There is the setting for
not protecting agricultural land within a specified
distance from the existing urban areas, but you did not
choose to do that.)
Click on Tables
and then Agricultural land to compare how this
scenario fared in preserving agricultural land compared
with the Current trends scenario. The amount of
agricultural land converted to urban use was cut in half.
But even for agriculture, the results are not all
positive. For Current trends, the percentage of
agricultural land in grid cells that were at least 12.5
percent urban at the end of the simulation is 27 percent.
(This is an arbitrary measure of the extent to which
agricultural land is impacted by urban development.)
Under the Preserve ag scenario, almost 32
percent of agricultural land is impacted, because of the
forced dispersal of development into more agricultural
areas.
Now click on Sensitive
lands to display that table. With the Preserve
ag scenario, greater areas of wetlands, riparian
buffers, steeply-sloped lands, and forest land have been
converted to urban use. This shows how gains in achieving
one objective can come at the expense of others.
Using the Tools
You would now like to
compare the Preserve ag scenario with the UGB
scenario that you created earlier. Click on the Tools
button at the top of the window. The View, edit
comments form shows that Preserve ag is the
Active scenario and Current trends is
the Comparison scenario. (It also allows you to
add comments for either scenario and view any comments
that might have been added previously.)
To substitute your UGB
scenario for Current trends, click on Load
scenario as comparison as button. In the Load
scenario as comparison dialog box, select the file UGB.luc
(the model adds the .luc extension for scenario
files) and click Open. This is now loaded as the
Comparison scenario. Use the Maps and Tables
buttons to compare the Preserve ag and UGB
scenarios.
Suppose you now wanted to
proceed with the creation of more new agricultural land
preservation scenarios with different values, using the
existing Preserve ag scenario as the base for
comparison. Click on the Tools button and then
click on Make active scenario comparison.
This completes the
tutorial. You have gained experience in using many of the
functions of the luci2 model. There are, of
course, many more options for the creation of new
scenarios. Remember that you can use the Help
files to provide explanations as you explore the
possibilities. You have also seen how the simulations can
produce very different and, in some cases, unanticipated
results. By continuing to work with the luci2
model, you will learn more than will help you better
understand and make choices about urban development in
Central Indiana.
Frequently asked questions
HELP CONTENTS
Do some simulations take longer to run than others?
Yes. Depending upon the
scenario specifications, running a simulation can require
greater numbers of calculations and take significantly
longer. For example, scenarios that require much of the
available land to be developed will require more lengthy
iterative allocation procedures to allocate the
development.
I can't print tables
or maps from the program. What's wrong?
For a very small number of
printers, printing fails, apparently because the printer
driver cannot handle some of the printer settings being
made. For more information and instructions on how to
solve this problem, click HERE.
Why aren't there more
statistics for counties or other smaller areas?
Part of the problem is
simply space and time. More disaggregated statistics
would require more time to calculate, more space to
display, and more results to scroll through. But even
more importantly, many of the statistics provided for the
region would be inaccurate and misleading if provided for
smaller areas.
Why aren't
capabilities provided to zoom in and pan for the maps?
One answer is that there
are only so many features that could be included in the
model. This was not seen as a priority, as the maps are
intended to provided a portrayal of overall patterns. The
model was never intended to provide detailed accurate
results for small areas that would require the ability to
zoom in and pan. The Export Results capability
does allow users to export scenario results so that they
can be viewed with geographic information systems
software, which provides the enhanced viewing
capabilities.
Why is the Export
Results capability so limited, providing only the one
file with limited data and no options?
Export Results
continues the provision of the basic exporting
capabilities that were included in the original model for
the freely-distributed Central Indiana Implementation.
The luci2 Urban Simulation Model includes more
robust options for the output of results that are
available for professional applications but are not
included in the freely-distributed version.
I can't find any way
to print information from the help screens in luci2.
The luci2 program
does not include these capabilities. However, all of the
help files are standard HTML files. You can open
the help files in your internet browser and print from
there. The help files are in the Help folder
under the luci2 program folder. For most users
selecting the default installation options, the path will
be C:\program Files\luci2\Help. The easiest way
to access the various help files is to open HelpContents.htm,
which has links to the other help files. Alternatively,
you can load the help files as a single file for printing
by opening the combined file luci2Help.htm.
I find it unusual that
the luci2 program does not have any standard pull-down
menus. Why?
It was felt that the luci2
program would be unfamiliar and pose novel choices for
most users. Putting the commands onto buttons that would
be displayed as the user accessed the major functions of
the program allows the users to see their options. Had
they been "hidden" on pull-down menus, users
might not know what they should be looking for. Note the
increasing use of toolbars in Windows applications.
Placing commands on pull-down menus may not always be the
best way of making program functionality accessibility to
users.
In what language was
the luci2 program written? Who wrote the program itself?
The luci2 program
is written completely in Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0. Only
the tools and components that come with Visual Basic were
used. No third-party controls have been used. The program
was written solely by John Ottensmann.
More Information on luci2
HELP CONTENTS
Assistance in using the luci2 model can be
obtained from the Center for Urban Policy and the
Environment by email at luci@iupui.edu or by telephone at (317) 261-3000.
More information about the
luci2 model can be obtained from the LUCI
website at http://luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu.
The website includes a
PowerPoint presentation that provides a more
comprehensive introduction to luci2. This can be
viewed online or downloaded.
The website also includes
the current version of the luci2 Working Paper.
This document, which is revised as changes are made to
the model, provides the most complete documentation on luci2.
John R. Ottensmann, the
author of the luci2 Urban Simulation Model, can
be reached by email at jottensm@iupui.edu.
Maps
help
HELP CONTENTS
The Maps buttons just below the buttons at the
top of the window are used to display, print, and copy
maps showing simulation results for the Active and
Comparison scenarios.
Change displays the change in the
percent of land urban for the Active scenario
and the percent urban at the end of the simulation.
Urban displays the percent urban at the
start and end of the simulation for the Active
scenario.
Land use displays the general land use
pattern at the start and end of the simulation for the Active
scenario. For information on the mapping of land use,
click HERE.
Compare change displays the change in
percent of land urban for the Active and Comparison
scenarios.
Compare urban displays the percent urban
at the end of the simulation for the Active and Comparison
scenarios.
Compare land use displays the general
land use pattern at the end of the simulation for the Active
and Comparison scenarios. For information on the
mapping of land use, click HERE.
Print prints the currently displayed
map. If problems are encountered with printing, click HERE for a possible solution.
Copy copies the currently displayed map
to the clipboard.
Clicking on the Legend button in the
lower-right corner of the map area displays a legend for
the currently displayed map in a movable window.
Mapping land use in luci2
HELP CONTENTS
Land use is traditionally mapped using parcel-level data,
with each parcel having been assigned a unique land use
classification. luci2 has information on the
amounts of land devoted to different land uses within
each of the simulation zones. Thus, a different approach
had to be devised for the mapping of land use.
Each of the simulation zones is assigned a land use
classification and color by determining the land use that
is dominant in the zone, with dominance based upon both
the quantity of the use and the impact of the use on the
character of the area. Assignment is done sequentially,
as follows:
- Zones in which
employment-related land use (commercial,
industrial, and comparable special uses) is
dominant (>50 % is the default), colored red
- Zones in which
employment-related land is significant (25 –
50%), colored orange, to reflect less-intensive
concentration of such use and probable mixing
with residential
- Zones in which
residential use is dominant, colored yellow
- Zones in which
residential use is significant, colored pale
yellow
- Zones in which other
urban land uses are dominant, colored darker grey
- Zones in which other
urban land uses are significant, colored lighter
grey
- Zones in which
nonurban public land is dominant, colored green
- Zones in which
nonurban public land is significant, colored pale
green
Printing problems
HELP CONTENTS
For a very small number of printers, when the Visual
Basic print routine attempts to set the paper bin and/or
duplex settings for the printer, printing can fail. This
apparently happens for printers that do not support these
properties and for which the printer driver does not
ignore these settings. If problems are encountered in
printing, try turning the setting of these properties off
by checking the Disable printer paper bin and
duplex settings for printing checkbox in Startup
Preferences under Tools. If no problems are
encountered in printing, leave this unchecked.
Tables
help
HELP CONTENTS
The Tables buttons display at the left edge of
the window and are used to display tabular results for
the Active and Comparison scenarios and
to print and copy those tables.
Population displays a table with
population, population density, and journey to work
information. For more information, click HERE.
Land use displays a table with amounts
of urban, nonurban, residential, and employment-related
land. For more information, click HERE.
Sensitive lands displays a table with
information on wetlands, land in riparian buffers,
steeply-sloped land, and forest land. For more
information, click HERE.
Agricultural land displays a table with
information on agricultural land and the impact of
development on agricultural land. For more information,
click HERE.
Utilities displays a table with land
served by utilities and the urban land served by
utilities. For more information, click HERE.
County change urban displays a table
with the change in urban land by county. For more
information, click HERE.
County percent change displays a table
with the percentage changes in urban land by county. For
more information, click HERE.
County final urban displays a table with
urban land at the end of the simulation by county. For
more information, click HERE.
County percent urban displays a table
with the percentages of the land urban at the end of the
simulation by county. For more information, click HERE.
County change employment displays a
table with the change in employment by county. For more
information, click HERE.
County employment displays a table with
the employment at the end of the simulation by county.
For more information, click HERE.
Scenario specifications displays a table
with all of the scenario settings for the Active
and Comparison scenarios. For more information,
click HERE.
Print table prints the currently
displayed table. If problems are encountered with
printing, click HERE for a possible solution.
Copy table data copies the information
in the currently-displayed table to the clipboard. For
more information, click HERE.
Population table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the
final year for the scenario.
Population growth is the option specified for
each scenario.
Density is the option for density of
development specified for each scenario.
Population is the total population in
the Central Indiana region.
Residential population density is the
total population divided by the total amount of
residential land in the region.
Journey to work is the estimated mean
length of the journey to work for the region.
Land use table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the
final year for the scenario.
Urban land is the amount of land with
residential land use, employment-related land use
(commercial, industrial, and comparable special uses) and
other urban land uses ranging from parks to
transportation land use. No changes to the other urban
land uses are simulated, so the amount at the start
remains fixed.
Nonurban land is the land in the region
that is not urban land. This includes substantial amounts
of nonurban public land in some parts of the region.
Residential land is the urban land
devoted to residential use.
Employment-related land is the urban
land devoted to commercial, industrial, and comparable
special uses.
Sensitive lands table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the
final year for the scenario.
Sensitive lands restrictions are the
restrictions (if any) placed on the development of
specified sensitive lands for the scenario.
Wetlands is the amount of land in
wetlands as identified by the National Resource
Inventory.
Riparian buffers is the amount of land
in the areas along rivers and streams. For more
information on how the riparian buffers are defined,
click HERE.
Undev >15% slope is the amount of
land that is not urban that has steep slopes greater than
15% slope.
Forest land is the amount of land with
areas of over 20 acres of forest land cover.
Restrictions on land available for development
are the areas of land on which urban development is not
allowed given the options selected for the scenario.
Riparian
buffers
HELP CONTENTS
Riparian buffers are land areas along rivers and streams
that may be restricted from development to protect water
quality and habitat areas along waterways; such
restrictions may also have flood protection benefits.
The widths of the stream buffers being used depends on
the size of the waterway.
For the two major rivers flowing through the region, the
Wabash River and the White River, areas extending 400
feet from either bank of the river are designated as the
riparian buffers.
For those other larger rivers and streams that appear on
the United States Geological Survey 1:2,500,000 scale
(very small scale) digital maps, areas extending 250 feet
from either bank are designated as the riparian buffers;
as an example of the streams that are included, in Marion
County (Indianapolis), Fall Creek and Eagle Creek fall
into this category.
For the smaller streams that appear on the United States
Geological Survey 1:100,000 scale digital maps, areas
extending 150 feet from either bank are designated as the
riparian buffers; this includes most of the permanent
water features in the region.
Agricultural land table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Agricultural land restrictions are the
restrictions (if any) placed on the development of
agricultural land.
Agricultural land is the amount of land
devoted to intensive agricultural activity. Agricultural
land at the start is defined as that land classified as
having agricultural land cover in any of the three
periods for which land cover information was available
(1985, 1993, and 2000) and that was not classified as
urban in 2000. This is predominantly land devoted to the
growing of row crops and excludes agricultural land
devoted only to grasslands for growing hay, pasture, and
grazing.
Impact of development on agricultural land
is the amount of agricultural land in simulation zones in
which at least 12.5 percent of the land is urban divided
by the total amount of agricultural land. It is a measure
of the proportion of agricultural land that is
potentially impacted by the presence of nearby urban
development. The threshold of 12.5 percent is essentially
arbitrary. It represents an area of 80 acres. Thus, that
level of development would be equivalent to two 40-acre
fields being developed as subdivisions.
Restrictions on land available for development
are the areas of land on which urban development is not
allowed given the options selected for the scenario.
Utilities table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Utilities specifications are the
specifications of whether utilities are to be required
for development and the specifications for the expansion
of water and utility services.
Land served by water utilities and Land
served by sewer utilities are the total areas of
the simulation zones provided with water and sewer
utility service at the times specified.
Urban land served by water utilities and
Urban Land served by sewer utilities are
the areas of urban land within the simulation zones
provided with water and sewer utility service at the
times specified.
Percent urban land served by water and Percent
urban land served by sewer are the percentages
of all of the urban land in the region within the
simulation zones provided with water and sewer utility
service at the times specified.
County change urban table
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Change in urban land (sq mi) is the
increase in the total amount of urban land in each county
from the start of the simulation to the end as a result
of new residential and employment-related development.
County percent change table
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Percentage change in urban land is the
percentage increase over the period of the simulation in
the amount of urban land in each county.
County final urban table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Urban land at end of simulation (sq mi)
is the total amount of urban land in each county at the
end of the simulation as a result of new residential and
employment-related development.
County percent urban table
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Percentage land urban at end of simulation
is the percentage of the total land area of each county
that is urban land at the end of the simulation.
County change employment
table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Employment growth is the method selected
for the forecasting of employment for the scenario.
Employment change during simulation is
the change in the total employment in each county from
the start of the simulation to the end as forecast by the
model using the method specified.
County employment table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Target year is the final year for the
scenario.
Employment growth is the method selected
for the forecasting of employment for the scenario.
Employment at end of simulation is the
total employment in each county at the end of the
simulation as forecast by the model using the method
specified.
Scenario specifications
table help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE TABLES COMMANDS CLICK HERE
This table displays all the scenario specifications, set
when using New Scenario to create a scenario,
for the Active and Comparison
scenarios. More information can be obtained from the help
screens associated with the forms used for setting the
scenario specifications accessed at NEW
SCENARIO.
This table displays only that information required for
the current Active and Comparison
scenarios. With more scenario options selected, the table
expands to display the various settings associated with
those options.
Printing problems
HELP CONTENTS
For a very small number of printers, when the Visual
Basic print routine attempts to set the paper bin and/or
duplex settings for the printer, printing can fail. This
apparently happens for printers that do not support these
properties and for which the printer driver does not
ignore these settings. If problems are encountered in
printing, try turning the setting of these properties off
by checking the Disable printer paper bin and
duplex settings for printing checkbox in Startup
Preferences under Tools. If no problems are
encountered in printing, leave this unchecked.
Copy table data help
HELP CONTENTS
Copy table data copies information from
the currently displayed data to the Windows clipboard.
The data are copied to the clipboard in a tab-delimited
format. This works in a way such that the information can
be readily pasted into an Excel spreadsheet.
If no rows in the table have been selected (no rows are
highlighted), the Copy table data
command copies all of the information in the table to the
clipboard. You can select one or more rows in a table by
clicking on the row, clicking and dragging over the rows
to be selected, or clicking on the first or last row to
be selected and then shift-clicking on the row at the
other end (standard Windows selection methods). The
selected rows will be highlighted. Then the Copy
table data command copies the information from
only the selected rows to the clipboard. If you wish to
unselect all of the rows in a table, press the Escape
key.
If the information copied from a table is pasted into a
Word document, the tab settings will have to be adjusted
in order for the information to display correctly.
If the final destination for the information is a Word
document or PowerPoint presentation, you may find it
easier to first paste the copied table data into an Excel
spreadsheet and then copy that and paste into your target
document or presentation.
New scenario help
HELP CONTENTS
The New scenario buttons display at the left
edge of the window and are used to specify scenario
settings and create new scenarios.
Target year specifies the final year for
the simulation. For more information, click HERE.
Population growth specifies the
population forecast for the region. For more information,
click HERE.
Density specifies the housing unit
density option for new residential development. For more
information, click HERE.
Utilities specifies whether utilities
are required for new development and the manner and rate
of expansion of utility service. For more information,
click HERE.
Transportation specifies the development
of selected transportation improvements in specified
years. For more information, click HERE.
Sensitive lands specifies the
restriction of development on certain sensitive lands.
For more information, click HERE.
Agricultural land specifies the location
and level of restrictions on development on agricultural
land. For more information, click HERE.
Urban growth boundaries specifies the
requirement and size of urban growth boundaries. For more
information, click HERE.
Dispersal of development specifies
whether development is to be more or less dispersed than
otherwise predicted by the simulation model. For more
information, click HERE.
Accessibility to employment specifies
whether accessibility to employment is to be given
greater or lesser importance than estimated for the
model. For more information, click HERE.
Employment growth specifies the method
to be used by the model to forecast changes in employment
by employment zone. For more information, click HERE.
New employment allows additional
employment to be added to an employment zone (ZIP code)
in a specified year. For more information, click HERE.
County growth specifies slower or faster
rates of residential development for a selected county.
For more information, click HERE.
Education specifies that the differences
in ISTEP scores by school district be reduced from the
current differences. For more information, click HERE.
User scenarios allows the specification
of additional scenario options that have been defined by
the user. This option is available only for models or
users authorized to use the enhanced model capabilities
when the user has defined one or more user scenarios in
the User Scenario Definition file. For more
information, click HERE.
Advanced options allows the changing of
certain model parameters that govern the operation of the
simulation of new development in the model. For more
information, click HERE.
Add comments allows the user to add
comments to the scenario that will be saved with the
scenario file and that may later be viewed using the Tools
commands. For more information, click HERE.
Reset to comparison scenario sets all of
the scenario options to those for the Comparison
scenario. This may be useful when creating multiple
scenarios that are all variations of the Comparison
scenario.
RUN SIMULATION begins the creation of a
new scenario using the scenario settings currently
selected. This begins by opening a dialog box for the
entry of the new scenario name and the location in which
the scenario file is to be saved. The actual simulation
then begins. A progress bar in the area immediately below
the buttons at the top shows progress in creating the new
simulation. The simulation may be stopped by clicking on
the Cancel button. (There will generally
be a delay before the program is able to respond to a
cancellation request.) At the end of the simulation, the
settings and results are saved to a scenario file using
the scenario name plus the extension “.luc”
as the filename. At the conclusion of the simulation, the
new scenario becomes the Active scenario and the
Change map for the new Active scenario
is displayed.
Target
year help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Final year for simulation allows the
selection of the ending year for the simulation from 2005
to 2040 in 5-year increments. (The simulation starts in
the year 2000.)
Population growth help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
These options specify the population forecast for the
entire region. This forecast drives the simulation, in
that the forecast population growth determines the levels
of employment growth and new residential and
employment-related development.
Population growth at rate of growth in recent
past (1990-2000) specifies that population in
the region will grow at the rate of 5.55 percent in each
5-year simulation period. This is the rate at which
population in the region grew during the 1990s. This was
higher than the long-term rate of population growth for
the region.
Specify population growth rate provides
the option of selecting a specific rate of population
growth for the 5-year simulation periods.
Population growth using Indiana Business Research
Center forecast assumes that the population
growth in the region will occur as forecast by county by
the Indiana Business Research Center (IBRC) in their
current forecasts at the time of the development of this
model. Source: Indiana Business Research Center, Population
Projections - Indiana Counties & Regions 2005 to 2040.
Downloaded from http://www.stats.indiana.edu, July 18, 2003.
Density
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Density of development as predicted by the model
uses the prediction of density of development for each
simulation zone predicted by the residential density
equation in the model. This equation predicts varying
densities of residential development that depend upon
accessibility to employment, whether the simulation zone
is provided with sewer utility service, the distance to
the nearest interstate interchange, and the ISTEP score
of the school district.
Increase predicted density of development by
percentage takes the densities of development
predicted by the residential density equation for each
simulation zone and increases these by the percentage
specified.
Decrease predicted density of development by
percentage takes the densities of development
predicted by the residential density equation for each
simulation zone and decreases these by the percentage
specified.
Minimum density of development: units per acre
uses the densities of development predicted by the
residential density equation for each simulation zone
unless they are less than this minimum, in which case the
specified minimum density of development is used.
Maximum density of development: units per acre
uses the densities of development predicted by the
residential density equation for each simulation zone
unless they are greater than this maximum, in which case
the specified maximum density of development is used.
Utilities
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Require water utility service for development
specifies that new residential and employment-related
development can only occur in simulation zones that are
provided with water utility service at the start of the
simulation period.
Require sewer utility service for development
specifies that new residential and employment-related
development can only occur in simulation zones that are
provided with sewer utility service at the start of the
simulation period. Note that if both the options to
require water utility service and sewer utility service
are selected, the option to expand utilities as areas are
developed is disabled and “grayed-out.” This is
because no development can occur in areas that are not
served by utilities, so no increases in levels of urban
development in simulation zones not served by utilities
can occur.
Expand utilities around major urban areas to
specified area of expansion specifies that both
water and sewer utilities will be expanded so that the
specified area is served by the end of the simulation.
The expansion will take place by expansion outward from
the current urban area to the specified area of expansion
at a uniform rate over the period of the simulation.
Area to be served by utilities around each major
urban area at end of simulation is to be approximately
xxx percent of the current area at the start of the
simulation. The final area to be provided with
utility service at the end of the simulation is based
upon the size of each of the major urban areas at the
start of the simulation. The major urban areas at the
start of the simulation are those areas approximately
coincident with the Census Urbanized Areas (Anderson,
Bloomington, Columbus, Indianapolis, Kokomo,
Lafayette-West Lafayette, Muncie, and Terre Haute). The
urban areas are defined for the model as consisting of
those contiguous simulation zones with at least 25
percent of the land urban at the start of the simulation
in 2000 along with any other simulation zones enclosed
(surrounded on at least three sides) by those zones.
Expand utilities as areas are developed
specifies that utility services are to be extended to a
simulation zone when the level of urban development in
the zone exceeds the specified threshold and the utility
service is already provided to an adjacent zone.
Level of development for expansion of utilities
xxx percent of land in grid cell urban is the
minimum level of urban development in a simulation zone
that will trigger the expansion of utilities.
Transportation help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
These options allow the specification that various
improvements to the transportation infrastructure would
be constructed and the selection of the year in which
they would be built (the beginning of the simulation
period in which those improvements would be expected to
affect employment change and urban development). The four
transportation infrastructure improvement options
provided are as follows:
I-69 Indianapolis to Evansville. For
more information on this improvement, click HERE.
Interstate along US 31 Indianapolis to South Bend.
For more information on this improvement, click HERE.
Interstate outer belt around Indianapolis.
For more information on this improvement, click HERE.
Light rail system for Indianapolis. For
more information on this improvement, click HERE.
I-69 Indianapolis to
Evansville
HELP CONTENTS
This transportation improvement follows the new terrain
I-69 alignment described in the Federal Highway
Administration Record of Decision dated March 24, 2004.
This is the route of the proposed I-69 within the Central
Indiana region:
More information can be
obtained at the I-69 website at http://www.i69indyevn.org/.
Interstate along US 31
Indianapolis to South Bend
HELP CONTENTS
This would be a limited access highway built along or
near the current route of U.S. 31 from Indianapolis to
South Bend. This follows the alignments described in the
environmental studies being conducted for portions of
this route. This is the route within the Central Indiana
region:
For more information, see
the links to the various studies at http://www.in.gov/dot/projects/.
Interstate outer belt
around Indianapolis
HELP CONTENTS
This improvement would be a limited-access outer belt
highway constructed outside of I-465 in the outer parts
of the 9-county area surrounding Indianapolis. This is
the route being considered:
Light rail system for
Indianapolis
HELP CONTENTS
This alternative assumes the development of a complete
light rail rapid transit system within the major
corridors identified for rapid transit service:
Since no rapid transit
service currently exists within the region that could be
used for estimating the effect of transit on development,
the assumption is being made that the effects of the
development of a rapid transit system on residential
development would be comparable to the effects of
limited-access interstate highways. It is not assumed,
however, that the rapid transit system would have effects
comparable to interstates for the prediction of
employment growth or the simulation of employment-related
development.
Sensitive lands help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
These scenario options specify that no urban development
is to occur on the types of land indicated.
Restrict development in wetlands as
identified by the National Resource Inventory.
Restrict development in riparian buffers,
areas along rivers and streams. For more information on
how the riparian buffers are defined, click HERE.
Restrict development on steep slopes (>15%).
Restrict development in forested areas > 20
acres, identified using 2000 land cover data.
Riparian buffers
HELP CONTENTS
Riparian buffers are land areas along rivers and streams
that may be restricted from development to protect water
quality and habitat areas along waterways; such
restrictions may also have flood protection benefits.
The widths of the stream buffers being used depends on
the size of the waterway.
For the two major rivers flowing through the region, the
Wabash River and the White River, areas extending 400
feet from either bank of the river are designated as the
riparian buffers.
For those other larger rivers and streams that appear on
the United States Geological Survey 1:2,500,000 scale
(very small scale) digital maps, areas extending 250 feet
from either bank are designated as the riparian buffers;
as an example of the streams that are included, in Marion
County (Indianapolis), Fall Creek and Eagle Creek fall
into this category.
For the smaller streams that appear on the United States
Geological Survey 1:100,000 scale digital maps, areas
extending 150 feet from either bank are designated as the
riparian buffers; this includes most of the permanent
water features in the region.
Agricultural land help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
These scenario options provide for the specification of
restrictions of development on agricultural land.
Agricultural land at the start is defined as that land
classified as having agricultural land cover in any of
the three periods for which land cover information was
available (1985, 1993, and 2000) and that was not
classified as urban in 2000. This is predominantly land
devoted to the growing of row crops and excludes
agricultural land devoted only to grasslands for growing
hay, pasture, and grazing.
Restrict development on agricultural land
specifies whether any restrictions are to be placed on
such development.
Restrict development on xxx percent of
agricultural land specifies the percentage of
agricultural land within a simulation zone that is going
to be restricted, on which no urban development will be
allowed. This applies to all of the simulation zones in
which agricultural development is restricted.
In grid cells with at least xxx percent of land
in agricultural use at start of simulation
specifies that the restrictions on development on
agricultural land apply only to those grid cells with
some minimum percentage of agricultural land.
That are at least xxx miles from the edges of
major urban areas at start of simulation
specifies that the restrictions are not placed on
simulation zones within this distance of the edges of
major urban areas. The major urban areas at the start of
the simulation are those areas approximately coincident
with the Census Urbanized Areas (Anderson, Bloomington,
Columbus, Indianapolis, Kokomo, Lafayette-West Lafayette,
Muncie, and Terre Haute). The urban areas are defined for
the model as consisting of those contiguous simulation
zones with at least 25 percent of the land urban at the
start of the simulation in 2000 along with any other
simulation zones enclosed (surrounded on at least three
sides) by those zones.
Urban growth boundaries help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Establish growth boundaries around major urban
areas specifies that no urban development is to
occur outside of the specified urban growth boundaries,
with the exception that development will also be allowed
within simulation zones that exceed some minimum
threshold percentage urban.
Set urban growth boundaries so that the total
amount of land within the urban growth boundary is
approximately xxx percent of the current urban area at
the start of the simulation specifies the total
area to be included with the urban growth boundary around
each of the major urban areas. The area within an urban
growth boundary consists of the major urban area plus the
additional simulation zones that are closest to the urban
area that produce the total area specified. The major
urban areas at the start of the simulation are those
areas approximately coincident with the Census Urbanized
Areas (Anderson, Bloomington, Columbus, Indianapolis,
Kokomo, Lafayette-West Lafayette, Muncie, and Terre
Haute). The urban areas are defined for the model as
consisting of those contiguous simulation zones with at
least 25 percent of the land urban at the start of the
simulation in 2000 along with any other simulation zones
enclosed (surrounded on at least three sides) by those
zones.
Allow development outside of urban growth
boundaries in grid cells that are at least xxx percent
urban at start of simulation is the threshold
level of urban development at the start above which urban
development will be allowed.
Dispersal of development help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Allow more or less dispersal of development than
otherwise predicted by the model is used to
specify that such changes in dispersal are to be allowed;
until this is selected, the slider used for setting the
degree of dispersal is disabled and grayed out.
Degree of dispersal is set using the
slider to set values ranging from -10, No
dispersal, to 10, Maximum dispersal.
No dispersal (-10) results in all
development being confined to those grid cells with the
highest probabilities of development, which become
developed up to the maximum level. Less negative values
produce levels of dispersal between No dispersal
and the degree of dispersal normally predicted by the
model.
Maximum dispersal (10) is achieved by
reducing the standard deviation of the predicted
probabilities of residential development by 10 percent.
Less positive values produce levels of dispersal
associated with smaller reductions in the standard
deviation of the predicted probabilities of residential
development.
As predicted by model (0). Selecting
this value results in no change from the degree of
dispersal otherwise predicted by the model and will
result in the deselection of the option to Allow
more or less dispersal.
Accessibility to employment
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
Allow change in relative accessibility to
employment is used to specify that such changes
in accessibility are to be allowed; until this is
selected, the slider used for setting the relative
importance of accessibility is disabled and grayed out.
Relative importance of accessibility is
set using the slider to set values from -10, Least
Importance, to 10, Most importance.
Least importance (-10) sets the values
of the accessibility coefficients for the accessibility
to employment terms in the models to predict the
probability of residential development and the density of
residential development to one-half the values estimated
for the model. Less negative values result in
proportionately lower reductions in the accessibility
coefficients.
Most importance (10) sets the values of
the accessibility coefficients for the accessibility to
employment terms in the models to predict the probability
of residential development and the density of residential
development to twice the values estimated for the model.
Less positive values result in proportionately lower
increases in the accessibility coefficients.
As estimated for model (0). Selecting
this value results in no change in the accessibility
coefficients as estimated for the models and will result
in the deselection of the option to Allow change
in relative accessibility to employment.
When the relative importance of accessibility to
employment is changed, the accessibility coefficient for
the model to estimate the final mean journey to work is
also increased or decreased. The change in this
coefficient is proportional to the proportional change in
the accessibility coefficients for the other models as
specified by the slider position times the proportion of
the final population that represents new population
growth since the start of the simulation.
Employment growth help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
These options specify how the model predicts employment
growth and change by ZIP code for the simulation. Total
employment for the region is assumed to grow at the same
rate as the population. The selection determines how this
employment growth is allocated to the ZIP code areas.
Model predicts local service and basic employment.
Equations estimated using changes in employment by ZIP
code from 1995 to 2000 are used to predict the changes in
employment by ZIP code for four industry groups: local
service employment (including retail trade, service,
public administration, and construction employment);
manufacturing employment; transportation, communications,
and wholesale trade employment; and finance, insurance,
and real estate employment.
Model predicts local service employment.
The equation estimated using changes in employment by ZIP
code from 1995 to 2000 for local service employment is
used to predict the changes in employment by ZIP code for
local service employment. Basic employment growth is
predicted using one of the following three alternatives:
Basic employment growth allocated in proportion
to ZIP code basic employment. The growth in
basic employment is allocated to the ZIP codes in
proportion to their current basic employment. The
proportional distribution of basic employment across the
ZIP codes remains constant.
Basic employment growth allocated in proportion
to recent growth in county basic employment. The
growth in basic employment is allocated to the counties
in proportion to the amount of basic employment growth in
each county from 1995 to 2000. Counties that lost basic
employment will have no additional basic employment
allocated. The growth in basic employment within each
county is then allocated to the ZIP codes in proportion
to the ZIP code basic employment. This allocates more of
the growth in basic employment to the more rapidly
growing counties while not considering recent growth
patterns at the ZIP code level, which may have greater
random variation.
Basic employment growth allocated in proportion
to recent growth in ZIP code basic employment.
The growth in basic employment is allocated to the ZIP
codes in proportion to the amount of basic employment
growth in each ZIP code from 1995 to 2000. ZIP codes that
lost basic employment will have no additional basic
employment allocated. This allocates more of the growth
in basic employment to the more rapidly growing ZIP
codes.
Employment growth allocated in proportion to ZIP
code employment. The growth in total employment
is allocated to the ZIP codes in proportion to their
current total employment. The proportional distribution
of total employment across the ZIP codes remains
constant.
Employment growth allocated in proportion to
recent growth in county employment. The growth
in total employment is allocated to the counties in
proportion to the amount of total employment growth in
each county from 1995 to 2000. Counties that lost total
employment will have no additional employment allocated.
The growth in total employment within each county is then
allocated to the ZIP codes in proportion to the ZIP code
total employment. This allocates more of the growth in
total employment to the more rapidly growing counties
while not considering recent growth patterns at the ZIP
code level, which may have greater random variation.
Employment growth allocated in proportion to
recent growth in ZIP code basic employment. The
growth in total employment is allocated to the ZIP codes
in proportion to the amount of total employment growth in
each ZIP code from 1995 to 2000. ZIP codes that lost
total employment will have no additional employment
allocated. This allocates more of the growth in total
employment to the more rapidly growing ZIP codes.
New employment help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
This allows the specification that additional new
employment beyond the employment growth predicted by the
model be added in a specified ZIP code, beginning in a
specified year.
This option is to allow the generation of scenarios that
will reflect the effects on urban development of a major
new employment addition, perhaps as the result of
economic development efforts
Add new employment in specified ZIP code
specifies that such an addition is to be made; until this
is selected, the options for specifying the employment
addition are disabled and grayed-out.
ZIP code provides for the selection of
the ZIP code in which the additional employment is to be
added.
Number of new employees specifies the
number of additional employees to be added to the total
employment in the selected ZIP code.
Year new employment added specifies the
simulation year in which the new employees are to be
added.
County growth help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
This allows the specification that a particular county
will have more or less urban development than otherwise
predicted by the model.
Increase or decrease probabilities of development
for specified county specifies that such a
change is to be made; until this is selected, the options
for specifying the change are disabled and grayed-out.
County provides for the selection of the
county for which the probabilities of development are to
be increased or decreased.
Percent increase or decrease (-) specifies
the percentages by which the probabilities of residential
development for each of the simulation zones in the
county will be increased or decreased from the values
predicted by the model.
Education
help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
This allows the specification that differences in ISTEP
scores by school district be reduced to observe the
effect that such a change would have on urban
development.
Reduce differences in ISTEP scores by school
district specifies that such a reduction is to
be made; until this is selected, the slider used for
setting the degree of reduction is disabled and grayed
out.
Degree of reduction is set using the
slider to set values ranging from 0, No reduction,
As predicted by model, to 10, Complete
reduction, No differences.
No reduction. As predicted by model (0)
uses the observed ISTEP scores by school district; no
reduction in the differences is made. Selecting this
value results in no change and will result in the
deselection of the option to Reduce differences
in ISTEP scores.
Complete reduction. No
differences (10) eliminates differences in ISTEP
scores, substituting the mean ISTEP score for all
simulation zones. Smaller values produce smaller
reductions in the differences in the ISTEP scores, with
the standard deviation of the distribution of the ISTEP
scores being reduced in proportion to the magnitude of
the value selected.
User scenarios help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
The scenario options available will be those defined in
the User Scenario Definition file. The following
types of scenarios may be included as user scenarios:
Restriction of development on specified type of
land
Specification of land areas available for
residential development
Minimum densities for residential development
Maximum densities for residential development
Specification of land areas available for
employment-related development
Specification of areas provided with water
utility service and year provided
Specification of areas provided with sewer
utility service and year provided
Transportation infrastructure improvement and
year built
Advanced options help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
This is a set of scenario specifications that affect the
details of how the simulation is carried out. Appropriate
use of these options requires some understanding of how
the model simulates development.
Change internal demand for new residential
development from current residents. While the
majority of the demand for new residential development
arises from growth in population in the region, some of
the demand comes from existing residents, either through
new household formation or from a desire for new housing
that will ultimately replace some existing housing. This
is called “internal demand” and has been
estimated using data for 1990 and 2000 as the percentage
of current residents demanding new residential
development per simulation period. This allows changing
the internal demand from its default value.
Policy or other changes could have the effect of reducing
(or possibly increasing) the level of demand from current
residents; efforts at revitalization of older areas of
cities, for example, might make these areas more
attractive to current residents, decreasing their demand
for new urban development
Percent of current residents demanding new
residential development per simulation period.
This is used to specify an alternate value for the
internal demand.
Change maximum amount of land in each simulation
zone available for urban development. In the
past, urban development has generally eventually resulted
in 100 percent of the land in most developing areas being
converted to urban use. It may be possible that such
complete development may not occur in the future.
Alternatively, public policies might be instituted that
are aimed at preserving significant amounts of open space
in developing areas. This allows changing the maximum
amount of land in each simulation zone available for
urban development from its default value of 100 percent
to some lesser value.
Maximum percent of land in each simulation zone
available for urban development. This is used to
specify a lower value for the maximum percent of land
available for urban development.
Change minimum probability for residential
development. The aggregate logit model to
predict the probability of residential development for
each simulation zone predicts at least some small,
positive probability for every zone. It is highly
unlikely that every zone will experience residential
development and it is likewise unreasonable to expect
that residential development will occur in the very small
increments associated with the smallest probabilities. In
the simulation, predicted probabilities less than the
minimum probability threshold are set to zero. The
default value was selected to correspond to one-half the
lowest probability for the simulation with one pixel of
development as estimated from the satellite imagery. This
allows changing the minimum probability for residential
development.
Minimum predicted probability for allocation of
new residential development. This is used to
specify a different value for the minimum predicted
probability for allocation of new residential
development.
Change criteria for allocation of
employment-related land use. Employment-related
development cannot be allocated in proportion to the
predicted probability of development. Employment-related
land use exhibits clustering, and development cannot
occur in very small increments. In the allocation of
employment-related development, the model generally makes
allocations no smaller than a minimum size threshold. In
addition, to assure the realistic clustering of
employment-related land uses, the model generally
allocates employment-related development to only some
maximum percentage of the simulation zones within each
employment zone. This allows changing the minimum amount
of employment-related land use allocated and the maximum
percentage of the simulation zones in each employment
zone to which such development can be allocated.
Minimum amount of employment-related land use
allocated to simulation zone (acres). This is
used to specify the minimum amount of employment-related
development in acres that can generally be allocated to a
simulation zone.
Maximum percent of simulation zones within each
employment zone to which employment-related land use may
be allocated. This is used to specify the
maximum percentage of the simulation zones within an
employment zone to which employment-related development
can generally be allocated.
Add comments help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR GENERAL HELP WITH
THE NEW SCENARIO COMMANDS CLICK HERE
This is used to add comments that will be saved with the
scenario. The comments may later be viewed using the View,
edit scenario comments command with the Tools
buttons.
To create a new comment, just begin typing or click in
the text box. The “Add scenario comments here”
message will immediately disappear.
Out
of land help
HELP CONTENTS
The simulation model has run out of land for the
allocation of new urban development. This can occur when
significant restrictions are placed on the amounts of
land available for development (including by requiring
water or sewer utility service), when population growth
is set unusually high, or when population densities for
new residential development are set unusually low.
The simulation continues.
The assumption is made that the shortage of available
land will produce increased land prices, resulting in
development occurring at higher densities than would have
otherwise been the case. Population growth that cannot be
accommodated by new residential development is allocated
to the simulation zones in which new residential
development has already occurred, in proportion to the
share of the total population growth in each simulation
zone. This results in increases in population densities.
Tools
help
HELP CONTENTS
The Tools buttons display at the left edge of
the window and are used to work with scenarios and change
program options.
View, edit scenario comments allows
viewing of the scenario names and comments associated
with the Active and Comparison scenarios.
The scenario comments may be edited by clicking in the
comments text boxes. Any changes made to the comments
will automatically be saved permanently in the scenario
files. The Copy to Clipboard buttons
copy the scenario comment text to the clipboard.
Make active scenario comparison loads
the current Active scenario for use as the Comparison
scenario as well.
Make comparison scenario active loads
the current Comparison scenario for use as the Active
scenario as well.
Load scenario as active loads any
scenario saved on disk as the Active scenario.
Load scenario as comparison loads any
scenario saved on disk as the Comparison scenario.
Save active scenario as saves the Active
scenario with a different filename and/or to a
different location.
Save comparison scenario as saves the Comparison
scenario with a different filename and/or to a
different location.
Delete scenario allows the deletion of
any previously-saved scenario.
Reset to default scenario folder sets
the folder which will initially be displayed when
performing scenario operations to the Scenarios
folder under the luci2 program folder, which is
the original default scenario folder.
Export results writes selected output
for the Active scenario to a file for use in
mapping or analysis. For more information on the results
files and their use, click HERE.
Startup preferences sets the scenarios
to be loaded at program startup and specifies whether the
Help window is to be automatically opened at
program startup. For more information, click HERE.
Mapping preferences sets options for how
maps are to be displayed and printed. For more
information, click HERE.
Output options sets whether and how
output from a simulation is automatically written to
files as a simulation is run. This option is available
only for models or users authorized to used the enhanced
model capabilities. For more information, click HERE.
Export results help
HELP CONTENTS
Exports results writes selected
information for the Active scenario to a file
that can be used with geographic information systems
software for further mapping and analysis. If you are not
familiar with the use of geographic information systems
software, this option is probably not for your use.
The results are saved in the file luci2scenario.txt
in the ModelResults folder under the luci2
program folder, which will generally be located in C:\Program
Files.
Note that each use of the Export results command
overwrites the previous information in the luci2Scenarios.txt
file. Users wishing to keep previously-exported
data while exporting new data will have to either rename
the file or copy or move the file to another folder.
The luci2scenario.txt file is a comma-separated
variable file with variable names in the first line of
the file, separated by commas.
The variables included for the simulation zones (grid
cells) in this file are as follows:
- SimZone -
the numerical identifier for the simulation zone;
this may be used to join the data file to the gridcell.shp
file for mapping
- UrbStart
– the percentage of the land in the
simulation zone that is urban at the start of the
simulation
- UrbFinal
– the percentage of the land in the
simulation zone that is urban at the end of the
simulation
- UrbChg
– the change in the percentage of land in
the simulation zone that is urban over the period
of the simulation
The ModelResults
folder includes two shapefiles for use in the mapping and
analysis of these data files:
- Gridcell.shp
– boundaries of the simulation zones, to
which the simulation zone data can be joined
using the variable SimZone in the
exported file and the variable cellid in
the shapefile
- County.shp
– boundaries of the counties, adjusted to
coincide with the grid cell boundaries so that
the entire area of each grid cell is assigned to
that county in which the center of the grid cell
falls
The shapefiles are in the
Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 16, North
American Datum 1927; projection files are included for
those using ArcGIS
The ModelResults folder also includes an ArcView
3.x project file luci2scenario.apr with views
mapping the three variables.
Startup preferences help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR HELP WITH OTHER
TOOLS CLICK HERE
Startup active scenario and Startup
comparison scenario specify the scenarios to be
initially loaded as the Active and Comparison
scenarios when the program is started. To change
either of the scenarios, click on the Browse
button and select the scenario file to be loaded when the
program is started.
Display help at program startup
specifies whether the Help window is
automatically opened to display the Welcome to luci2
help screen when the program is started.
Disable printer paper bin and duplex settings for
printing should be checked only if problems are
encountered when printing. For more information, click HERE.
Printing problems
HELP CONTENTS
For a very small number of printers, when the Visual
Basic print routine attempts to set the paper bin and/or
duplex settings for the printer, printing can fail. This
apparently happens for printers that do not support these
properties and for which the printer driver does not
ignore these settings. If problems are encountered in
printing, try turning the setting of these properties off
by checking the Disable printer paper bin and
duplex settings for printing checkbox in Startup
Preferences under Tools. If no problems are
encountered in printing, leave this unchecked.
Mapping preferences help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR HELP WITH OTHER
TOOLS CLICK HERE
This form provides for setting choices about how the maps
displayed using the Maps buttons will be
presented and printed. This includes the maps showing Change
percent urban, maps showing Percent
urban, and maps showing Land use.
For the maps showing Change percent urban
and Percent urban, the choices are
similar:
The first drop-down list box selects the color scheme to
be used in mapping the data. The list includes four
multi-color schemes, two sets of monochrome schemes, and
the Custom colors choice, which allows
selections of the specific colors for each class. The
colors for the color scheme and the number of classes
selected are displayed in the legend below. For more
information on the color schemes, click HERE.
The second drop-down list selects the number of classes,
from 2 to 9, to be used in mapping the data. When the
number of classes is selected, the default class cutoffs
for that number of classes are displayed in the legend
below.
The legend displays the colors to be used for the mapping
of data for each class and the cutoff values for the
classes. The class cutoffs can be adjusted by using the
up and down arrows next to the lower boundaries of the
classes. (Adjusting a lower boundary also adjusts the
upper boundary for the class below.)
If the Custom colors choice has been selected,
clicking on any of the color boxes for a class opens the Color
dialog box that allows the color for this class to be
changed.
For the maps showing Land use, somewhat
different options are available. For more information on
how land use is mapped in the model, click HERE.
The first drop-down list provides for only the selection
between the Standard colors and the Custom
colors, which allows selections of the specific
colors for each class.
The mapping of land use will always include two classes
for each land use category, the higher class in which the
land use in dominant and the lower class in which the
land use is significant but not dominant. Therefore,
there is no option to specify the number of classes.
The legend displays the colors to be used for the mapping
of data for each land use class and the cutoff values for
the lower boundary of the first class (the cutoff between
not significant and significant) and the cutoff values
between the pairs of classes (the cutoff between
significant and dominant). These cutoff values can be
adjusted by using the up and down arrows next to each.
If the Custom colors choice has been selected,
clicking on any of the color boxes for a class opens the Color
dialog box that allows the color for this class to be
changed.
Color
schemes
HELP CONTENTS
Three groups of color schemes are provided for the
mapping of the Change Percent Urban and Percent
Urban data in addition to Custom Colors,
which allows the user to individually specify the color
for each class.
The first four, beginning with Yellow-Orange-Red,
are multicolor schemes. The color specifications and
designs for these schemes were developed by Cynthia
Brewer (http://colorbrewer.org/).
The next seven, from Red through Grey, are
monochrome color schemes that vary only in saturation and
luminance. They have been developed to be similar to the
monochrome color ramps provided in ArcView 3.x.
The next six, from Red2 through Grey2, are
alternative monochrome color schemes that are softer than
the first set. The color specifications and designs for
these schemes were developed by Cynthia Brewer (http://colorbrewer.org/).
Mapping land use in luci2
HELP CONTENTS
Land use is traditionally mapped using parcel-level data,
with each parcel having been assigned a unique land use
classification. luci2 has information on the
amounts of land devoted to different land uses within
each of the simulation zones. Thus, a different approach
had to be devised for the mapping of land use.
Each of the simulation zones is assigned a land use
classification and color by determining the land use that
is dominant in the zone, with dominance based upon both
the quantity of the use and the impact of the use on the
character of the area. Assignment is done sequentially,
as follows:
- Zones in which
employment-related land use (commercial,
industrial, and comparable special uses) is
dominant (>50 % is the default), colored red
- Zones in which
employment-related land is significant (25 –
50%), colored orange, to reflect less-intensive
concentration of such use and probable mixing
with residential
- Zones in which
residential use is dominant, colored yellow
- Zones in which
residential use is significant, colored pale
yellow
- Zones in which other
urban land uses are dominant, colored darker grey
- Zones in which other
urban land uses are significant, colored lighter
grey
- Zones in which
nonurban public land is dominant, colored green
- Zones in which
nonurban public land is significant, colored pale
green
Output options help
HELP CONTENTS
FOR HELP WITH OTHER
TOOLS CLICK HERE
The Output options allow the setting of whether
and how output from a simulation is automatically written
to files as the simulation is run. These options are
available only for models or users authorized to use the
enhanced model capabilities. For information on the
output files, click HERE.
Do not output results for each simulation
specifies that no results files will be written as the
simulation is run.
Output final results for each simulation
specifies that results files will be written for the
starting year of the simulation and for the final year of
the simulation.
Output intermediate and final results
specifies that results files will be written for the
starting year of the simulation, for each intermediate
year of the simulation, and for the final year of the
simulation.
Save selection for future sessions makes
the selection permanent. If this is not selected, the
option selected will apply only to the current session.
Output
files
HELP CONTENTS
The option is available to automatically write files with
simulation results as a new simulation is run. These
output files provide more information than is provided
using the Export results option.
The output files will be saved in the ModelResults
folder under the luci2 program folder, which
will generally be located in C:\Program Files.
When an option to write output files is selected, two
files will be written for each year specified, one with
data for the simulation zones and one with data for the
employment zones. These files will be given names created
by combining “Sim” or “Emp,”
plus the name of the scenario, plus the year for the
data, plus the extension “.txt.” For
example, if the name of the scenario were Test Run,
then the filenames for the two output files for the
starting year would be SimTest Run2000.txt and EmpTest
Run2000.txt.
The output files are comma-separated variable files with
variables names in the first line of the file, separated
by commas.
The variables included for the simulation zones in the
“Sim” files are as follows:
- SimZone
– the numerical identifier for the
simulation zone; this may be used to join the
data file to the gridcell.shp file for
mapping
- Area –
the land area of the simulation zone; always 1
square mile for the Central Indiana
Implementation
- ResLnd
– the total area of residential land use at
the time specified
- Pop –
the total population at the time specified
- EmpLnd
– the total area of employment-related land
use at the time specified
The variables included for
the employment zones in the “Emp”
files are as follows:
- EmpZone
– the numerical identifier for the
employment zone (the ZIP code); this may be used
to join the data file to the zips.shp
file for mapping
- Emplmnt
– the total employment at the time specified
The ModelResults
folder includes three shapefiles for use in the mapping
and analysis of these data files:
- Gridcell.shp
– boundaries of the simulation zones, to
which the simulation zone data can be joined
using the variable SimZone from the
“Sim” file and the variable cellid
in the shapefile
- Zips.shp
– boundaries of the employment zones (ZIP
codes) to which the employment zone data can be
joined using the variable EmpZone from
the “Emp” file and the
variable zip in the shapefile
- County.shp
– boundaries of the counties, adjusted to
coincide with the grid cell boundaries so that
the entire area of each grid cell is assigned to
that county in which the center of the grid cell
falls
The shapefiles are in the
Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 16, North
American Datum 1927; projection files are included for
those using ArcGIS.
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