With the LUCI and luci2 models, decision makers can produce different development scenarios reflecting policy choices and alternative assumptions regarding patterns of development that can be considered for the Central Indiana region. Examples of such scenarios and policy choices could include restricting development along streams and in wetlands, policies to preserve agricultural land, examining new transportation options. The model produces maps showing expected future patterns of development for the scenario and measures associated with the scenario, such as the length of the journey to work and amounts of different types of land converted to urban use.

The luci2 Urban Simulation Model is an enhanced version of the original LUCI model. It provides for the separate simulation of residential and employment-related development. Employment change is simulated within the model. Scenario options have been enhanced, including the option to use urban growth boundaries. The model includes the capability to employ user scenarios that impose custom specifications for specified areas. The luci2 model has been developed so that it can be adapted for use in other areas.

John Ottensmann, Ph.D., professor at the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IUPUI, developed the model for the Central Indiana region from information on past patterns of development derived from satellite images and other sources. The model uses factors associated with that development, including the availability of vacant land, transportation accessibility to employment, availability of infrastructure such as sewers, and so forth, to estimate the probability of future development occurring in each of the small grid cells on which the model is based to predict future urban development.

Dr. Ottensmann developed LUCI as part of a larger project undertaken by the Center for Urban Policy and the Environment, Central Indiana’s Future: Understanding the Region and Identifying Choices, which has been funded by an award of general support from Lilly Endowment, Inc.

For more details about LUCI, including the geography and data underlying the model, and how to create scenarios, go to the LUCI Help page.